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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 29 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 26 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 23 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 23 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
68%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 31 game
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 532 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 413 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 237 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1020 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 907 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:36
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerNothingToSay
53% · 51 game51% · 212 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyAme
49% · 302 games60% · 39 games
Lone DruidYatoro
Lone Druid
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
57% · 108 games48% · 160 games
Primal BeastLarl
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
49% · 156 games46% · 139 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
48% · 260 games45% · 327 games
Ringmasterrue
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed24:22
Xtreme Gaming 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
40% · 19 games62% · 87 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
41% · 282 games47% · 371 game
BeastmasterLarl
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
48% · 240 games53% · 340 games
BatriderBatyuk
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
48% · 298 games59% · 72 games
Techiesrue
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
45% · 170 games55% · 139 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2