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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Kiri · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
44%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
714 picks · 600 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 489 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1059 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
422 picks · 722 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1002 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 812 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:25
Infinity Esports 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerAdrx
32% · 51 game51% · 58 games
JuggernautDM
Juggernaut
Batrider
BatriderMr.Jeans
53% · 176 games54% · 332 games
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
48% · 48 games57% · 150 games
TechiesDemon
Techies
Rubick
RubickKiri
51% · 383 games51% · 233 games
EnchantressShakaLord
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePrada
46% · 115 games
Game 2prediction missed26:24
Infinity Esports 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAdrx
56% · 67 games51% · 138 games
Monkey KingDM
Monkey King
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMr.Jeans
51% · 65 games52% · 36 games
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
33% · 57 games53% · 227 games
RubickDemon
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
48% · 122 games54% · 27 games
OracleShakaLord
Oracle
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageKiri
52% · 117 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2