Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Rubick
Kiri · 17 games
Snapfire
Kiri · 15 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
Tiny
Kiri · 10 games
Tusk
Genek · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 15 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 10 games
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
554 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1059 bans
Doom
422 picks · 722 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 1002 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:25
Infinity Esports 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerAdrx
JuggernautDM
BatriderMr.Jeans
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
TidehunterFrank
TechiesDemon
RubickKiri
EnchantressShakaLord
Skywrath MagePrada
Game 2prediction missed26:24
Infinity Esports 44%Balrogs 56%
The model gave 56% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaAdrx
Monkey KingDM
Earth SpiritMr.Jeans
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
UnderlordFrank
RubickDemon
PhoenixPrada
OracleShakaLord
Skywrath MageKiri
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2