PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Dark Willow
Bignum · 22 games
Miranasignature
Speeed · 22 games
Hoodwink
Bignum · 20 games
Kezoften banned
RCY · 20 games
Tusksignature
Bignum · 18 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Ghost · 17 games
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 17 games
LGD Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 29 games
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
Baneoften banned
KJ · 19 games
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
474 picks · 288 bans
Mirana
334 picks · 136 bans
Dark Willow
331 picks · 144 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 459 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 432 bans
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 296 bans
Clockwerk
270 picks · 202 bans
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
GamerLegion 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaTimado
LifestealerWits
Storm SpiritRCY
InvokerSumaiL
Dark SeerFayde
AxeDavai
TechiesBignum
MiranaSneyking
Witch DoctorSpeeed
WindrangerThiolicor
Game 2prediction correct12:32
GamerLegion 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerFayde
TinyWits
WindrangerTimado
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
LargoRCY
Ember SpiritSumaiL
UndyingSpeeed
MiranaSneyking
TechiesBignum
HoodwinkThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2