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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 22 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 20 games
35%
Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ghost · 17 games
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 17 games
35%

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 29 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Baneoften banned
KJ · 19 games
58%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
474 picks · 288 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
334 picks · 136 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
331 picks · 144 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 459 bans
58%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 432 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 296 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
270 picks · 202 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 238 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
GamerLegion 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
51% · 144 games47% · 67 games
LifestealerWits
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
47% · 238 games51% · 111 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFayde
46% · 110 games54% · 181 game
AxeDavai
Axe
Techies
TechiesBignum
51% · 150 games53% · 117 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSpeeed
55% · 55 games46% · 221 game
WindrangerThiolicor
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct12:32
GamerLegion 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFayde
44% · 238 games47% · 373 games
TinyWits
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangerTimado
47% · 559 games52% · 307 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Largo
LargoRCY
56% · 364 games58% · 329 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingSpeeed
50% · 297 games49% · 189 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Techies
TechiesBignum
45% · 287 games50% · 547 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2