?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
82%
Tusk
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
59%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
965 picks · 663 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
582 picks · 933 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
518 picks · 344 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1096 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
472 picks · 351 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
Tundra Esports 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
58% · 51 game47% · 124 games
Zeusbzm
Zeus
Doom
Doom33
52% · 85 games51% · 105 games
SlarkYuragi
Slark
Riki
RikiNine
56% · 24 games49% · 75 games
Sand KingDM
Sand King
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
54% · 141 game48% · 55 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
42% · 141 game49% · 83 games
IoChuvash
Io
Game 2prediction missed29:37
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
46% · 77 games52% · 113 games
UrsaYuragi
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
54% · 216 games48% · 290 games
Death Prophetbzm
Death Prophet
Viper
Viper33
53% · 100 games55% · 53 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
52% · 243 games52% · 217 games
Monkey KingTaiga
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
43% · 436 games47% · 399 games
RubickChuvash
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2