DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
Doomsignature
33 · 21 game
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 15 games
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 9 games
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
965 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
Nature's Prophet
582 picks · 933 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
518 picks · 344 bans
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1096 bans
Clockwerk
472 picks · 351 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
Tundra Esports 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSkiter
Zeusbzm
Doom33
SlarkYuragi
RikiNine
Sand KingDM
MiranaSneyking
Dark WillowTaiga
HoodwinkSaksa
IoChuvash
Game 2prediction missed29:37
Tundra Esports 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
UrsaYuragi
Dragon KnightNine
Death Prophetbzm
Viper33
Dark SeerDM
EnchantressSneyking
Monkey KingTaiga
SnapfireSaksa
RubickChuvash
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2