PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 43 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 36 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 31 game
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
Tiny
Saksa · 27 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 26 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Saksa · 23 games
Void Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
South America Rejects
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 4 games
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Jakiro
Elmisho · 3 games
Kunkka
DarkMago · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
623 picks · 591 bans
Tiny
502 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 402 bans
Phoenix
438 picks · 475 bans
Hoodwink
420 picks · 201 bans
Warlock
411 picks · 259 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1037 bans
Puck
382 picks · 867 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:26
Team Yandex 80%South America Rejects 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterWatson
KunkkaDarkMago
BristlebackDM
NecrophosWits
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
SlardarFrank
HoodwinkSaksa
PhoenixElmisho
SilencerMalady
ClockwerkScofield
Game 2prediction missed25:31
Team Yandex 79%South America Rejects 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidWatson
BeastmasterFrank
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
TinyWits
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Ember SpiritDarkMago
SilencerMalady
EnchantressElmisho
TuskSaksa
HoodwinkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 93%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2