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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South America Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 43 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 36 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 31 game
65%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 27 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 26 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
61%

South America Rejects

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkka
DarkMago · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Wits · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 591 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 407 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 402 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 475 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
420 picks · 201 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 259 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 867 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:26
Team Yandex 80%South America Rejects 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWatson
56% · 248 games47% · 162 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
48% · 160 games52% · 13 games
NecrophosWits
Necrophos
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
44% · 162 games55% · 314 games
SlardarFrank
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
53% · 249 games49% · 266 games
PhoenixElmisho
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerMalady
47% · 73 games48% · 137 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed25:31
Team Yandex 79%South America Rejects 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidWatson
68% · 21 game53% · 369 games
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
45% · 410 games51% · 439 games
TinyWits
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
51% · 474 games50% · 438 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Silencer
SilencerMalady
50% · 182 games48% · 168 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskSaksa
50% · 683 games48% · 356 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 93%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2