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BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cake Teamwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
gpK~ Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cake Team

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Cake · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
dabex · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnus
Cake · 2 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Shishak · 2 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Shishak · 2 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Limitless · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage
Smiling Knight · 1 game
0%

gpK~ Team

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
kiyotaka · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Stint · 2 games
100%
Sven
Sven
gpK~ · 2 games
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Zloba · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Lukawa · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmother
kiyotaka · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Shachlo · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Zloba · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 297 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
383 picks · 169 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
370 picks · 164 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 491 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 309 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
299 picks · 284 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 483 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
273 picks · 366 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% gpK~ Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% gpK~ Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:36
Cake Team 45%gpK~ Team 55%
The model gave 55% on gpK~ Team — the game was taken by gpK~ Team in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
48% · 101 game52% · 195 games
WindrangergpK~
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawLimitless
52% · 210 games54% · 121 game
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Snapfire
SnapfireCake
51% · 318 games49% · 289 games
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendabex
42% · 46 games52% · 341 game
TuskZloba
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorShishak
48% · 271 game
Game 2prediction missed40:42
Cake Team 46%gpK~ Team 54%
The model gave 54% on gpK~ Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 1:12:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
54% · 18 games51% · 26 games
Iokiyotaka
Io
Arc Warden
Arc WardenCake
little data57% · 24 games
KunkkaShachlo
Kunkka
Doom
DoomLimitless
47% · 99 games48% · 85 games
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShishak
47% · 42 games49% · 61 game
UndyingZloba
Undying
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magidabex
54% · 37 games
Game 3prediction missed34:16
Cake Team 46%gpK~ Team 54%
The model gave 54% on gpK~ Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 20:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSmiling Knight
56% · 44 games55% · 127 games
Queen of PaingpK~
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterLimitless
47% · 189 games52% · 116 games
Bristlebackkiyotaka
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaCake
48% · 69 games57% · 78 games
Lone DruidShachlo
Lone Druid
Techies
TechiesShishak
38% · 94 games51% · 131 game
WarlockZloba
Warlock
Venomancer
Venomancerdabex
45% · 56 games
Model check result
Model favoritegpK~ Team · 59%
Series resultCake Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3