BETBOOM Streamers Battle 15 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cake Team
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Cake · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
dabex · 2 games
Magnus
Cake · 2 games
Shadow Demon
Shishak · 2 games
Techies
Shishak · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Limitless · 2 games
Anti-Mage
Smiling Knight · 1 game
gpK~ Team
Earthshaker
kiyotaka · 2 games
Lion
Stint · 2 games
Sven
gpK~ · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
Zloba · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Lukawa · 1 game
Broodmother
kiyotaka · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Shachlo · 1 game
Clockwerk
Zloba · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
500 picks · 297 bans
Dark Willow
383 picks · 169 bans
Mirana
370 picks · 164 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 491 bans
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 309 bans
Winter Wyvern
299 picks · 284 bans
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 483 bans
Undying
273 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% gpK~ Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% gpK~ Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:36
Cake Team 45%gpK~ Team 55%
The model gave 55% on gpK~ Team — the game was taken by gpK~ Team in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
WindrangergpK~
TimbersawLimitless
Invokerkiyotaka
SnapfireCake
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Crystal Maidendabex
TuskZloba
DisruptorShishak
Game 2prediction missed40:42
Cake Team 46%gpK~ Team 54%
The model gave 54% on gpK~ Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 1:12:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Iokiyotaka
Arc WardenCake
KunkkaShachlo
DoomLimitless
Shadow FiendgpK~
GrimstrokeShishak
UndyingZloba
Ogre Magidabex
Game 3prediction missed34:16
Cake Team 46%gpK~ Team 54%
The model gave 54% on gpK~ Team — the game was taken by Cake Team in 20:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkSmiling Knight
Queen of PaingpK~
TidehunterLimitless
Bristlebackkiyotaka
EnigmaCake
Lone DruidShachlo
TechiesShishak
WarlockZloba
Venomancerdabex
Model check result
Model favoritegpK~ Team · 59%
Series resultCake Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3