Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KKebab-enjoyerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 24 games
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Kebab-enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 496 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
538 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 636 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
Death Prophet
382 picks · 693 bans
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 776 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Kebab-enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
KZ TEAM 46%Kebab-enjoyers 54%
The model gave 54% on Kebab-enjoyers — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 30:40.
Game 2prediction correct33:22
KZ TEAM 46%Kebab-enjoyers 54%
The model gave 54% on Kebab-enjoyers — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 48:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteKebab-enjoyers · 54%
Series resultKebab-enjoyers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2