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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kebab-enjoyerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 24 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
81%
Batrider
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
54%

Kebab-enjoyers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
765 picks · 496 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 391 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
538 picks · 433 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
533 picks · 576 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 636 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 276 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
382 picks · 693 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
358 picks · 776 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Kebab-enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
KZ TEAM 46%Kebab-enjoyers 54%
The model gave 54% on Kebab-enjoyers — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 30:40.
Game 2prediction correct33:22
KZ TEAM 46%Kebab-enjoyers 54%
The model gave 54% on Kebab-enjoyers — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 48:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteKebab-enjoyers · 54%
Series resultKebab-enjoyers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2