Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Clockwerk
Chen · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Tiny
solji · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 6 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
Ursasignature
paradise' · 6 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
CDUB Esports
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
islA · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Broodmotheroften banned
islA · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Sanctified · 4 games
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
630 picks · 409 bans
Tusk
550 picks · 530 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 432 bans
Treant Protector
439 picks · 519 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
Clockwerk
322 picks · 212 bans
Death Prophet
321 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:17
Felt 48%CDUB Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Felt in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetBerna
DoomislA
Queen of Painsolji
DawnbreakerDouble King
EnigmaFayde
Death ProphetMark
UndyingShoe
TuskAfrOmoush
ClockwerkChen
HoodwinkSanctified
Game 2prediction missed45:33
Felt 45%CDUB Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Felt in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EnigmaFayde
LinaDouble King
Chaos KnightBerna
Keeper of the LightMark
Tinysolji
BeastmasterislA
RikiChen
Nyx AssassinAfrOmoush
DawnbreakerShoe
SnapfireSanctified
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 54%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2