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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
33%
Ursa
Ursasignature
paradise' · 6 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
20%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
islA · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 5 games
20%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
islA · 4 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sanctified · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
630 picks · 409 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 530 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
540 picks · 432 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
439 picks · 519 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 212 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
321 picks · 486 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:17
Felt 48%CDUB Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Felt in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBerna
54% · 261 game42% · 154 games
DoomislA
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsolji
55% · 157 games41% · 201 game
DawnbreakerDouble King
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
54% · 210 games45% · 343 games
Death ProphetMark
Death Prophet
Undying
UndyingShoe
55% · 238 games51% · 313 games
TuskAfrOmoush
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkChen
59% · 326 games43% · 181 game
HoodwinkSanctified
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed45:33
Felt 45%CDUB Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Felt in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
48% · 196 games53% · 222 games
LinaDouble King
Lina
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightBerna
45% · 161 game49% · 212 games
Keeper of the LightMark
Keeper of the Light
Tiny
Tinysolji
51% · 624 games55% · 313 games
BeastmasterislA
Beastmaster
Riki
RikiChen
50% · 65 games58% · 147 games
Nyx AssassinAfrOmoush
Nyx Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerShoe
45% · 234 games48% · 386 games
SnapfireSanctified
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 54%
Series resultFelt 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2