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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 32 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
queezy · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 17 games
71%
Dazzle
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 14 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
50%

cybercats

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 15 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 12 games
42%
Visage
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
58%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
45%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Egor · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fezor · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
502 picks · 337 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 474 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 415 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
346 picks · 340 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
346 picks · 398 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
298 picks · 157 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 681 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 628 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:21
Sigma.YNT 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendforyou
49% · 112 games51% · 291 game
Monkey KingAlberkaaa
Monkey King
Marci
Marciv1olent-
52% · 299 games41% · 374 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantresskur0patbI4
47% · 264 games54% · 298 games
Beastmasterzenica
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
54% · 737 games50% · 396 games
Snapfireforcemajor
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
56% · 256 games47% · 309 games
Hoodwinkjesv
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed36:27
Sigma.YNT 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 1:00:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritforyou
45% · 187 games61% · 106 games
Naga SirenAlberkaaa
Naga Siren
Marci
Marciv1olent-
49% · 162 games59% · 269 games
Enigmazenica
Enigma
Doom
Doomkur0patbI4
49% · 75 games52% · 227 games
BatriderChira JUNIOR
Batrider
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVANSKOR
41% · 147 games50% · 44 games
Spirit Breakerjesv
Spirit Breaker
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
41% · 235 games52% · 160 games
Disruptorforcemajor
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 52%
Series resultSigma.YNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2