Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
queezy · 18 games
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 17 games
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
v1olent- · 12 games
cybercats
Clockwerk
Hduo · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 12 games
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 11 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Egor · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Fezor · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
502 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 474 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 415 bans
Mirana
346 picks · 340 bans
Treant Protector
346 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
298 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 681 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:21
Sigma.YNT 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendforyou
Monkey KingAlberkaaa
Marciv1olent-
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Enchantresskur0patbI4
Beastmasterzenica
Tinyqueezy
Snapfireforcemajor
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
Hoodwinkjesv
Game 2prediction missed36:27
Sigma.YNT 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 1:00:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritforyou
Naga SirenAlberkaaa
Marciv1olent-
Enigmazenica
Doomkur0patbI4
BatriderChira JUNIOR
DawnbreakerVANSKOR
Spirit Breakerjesv
Rubickqueezy
Disruptorforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 52%
Series resultSigma.YNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2