DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Tusk
swedenstrong · 33 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 25 games
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 22 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
MODUS
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Phoenix
prblms · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
mrls · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
bottega · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
635 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
486 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
410 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1081 bans
Puck
385 picks · 812 bans
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
1w Team 81%MODUS 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Muertabottega
Void SpiritSquad1x
Beastmasterelmo^^
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Storm SpiritMirele
VenomancerRein
Clockwerkprblms
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Rubickmrls
Game 2prediction correct25:14
1w Team 81%MODUS 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerv1olent-
Alchemistbottega
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Void SpiritMirele
Pangolierмистер мораль
Centaur Warrunnerelmo^^
VenomancerRein
Rubickmrls
Ioswedenstrong
Grimstrokeprblms
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 95%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2