?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MODUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 33 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 25 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
81%

MODUS

Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
prblms · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
mrls · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bottega · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 395 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
410 picks · 367 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1081 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 812 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 564 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
1w Team 81%MODUS 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
53% · 197 games49% · 175 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
48% · 205 games46% · 285 games
Beastmasterelmo^^
Beastmaster
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
47% · 255 games48% · 343 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
61% · 61 game47% · 111 games
Clockwerkprblms
Clockwerk
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
52% · 305 games51% · 109 games
Rubickmrls
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct25:14
1w Team 81%MODUS 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
52% · 93 games51% · 29 games
Alchemistbottega
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
53% · 239 games46% · 185 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
45% · 225 games50% · 297 games
Centaur Warrunnerelmo^^
Centaur Warrunner
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
46% · 42 games58% · 75 games
Rubickmrls
Rubick
Io
Ioswedenstrong
51% · 26 games46% · 39 games
Grimstrokeprblms
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 95%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2