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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 18 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 14 games
64%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 33 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
668 picks · 795 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 534 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 418 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
457 picks · 318 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1124 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 604 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 802 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
388 picks · 308 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:28
GamerLegion 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 1:00:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezRCY
53% · 146 games42% · 190 games
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Terrorblade
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
64% · 6 games49% · 70 games
HuskarRain
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarFayde
49% · 345 games40% · 296 games
MarsATF
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
57% · 347 games48% · 226 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
55% · 226 games52% · 288 games
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed37:32
GamerLegion 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
42% · 363 games58% · 102 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Largo
LargoFayde
55% · 77 games49% · 179 games
Sand KingRain
Sand King
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
51% · 41 game49% · 202 games
Monkey KingATF
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
47% · 249 games51% · 352 games
Ringmasternot me
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskBignum
48% · 499 games55% · 394 games
Shadow DemonXakoda
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 54%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2