PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 19 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 15 games
Tusk
Bignum · 15 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 14 games
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 33 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
668 picks · 795 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 418 bans
Warlock
457 picks · 318 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1124 bans
Mars
391 picks · 604 bans
Puck
391 picks · 802 bans
Phoenix
388 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:28
GamerLegion 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 1:00:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezRCY
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Lone DruidGhost
HuskarRain
SlardarFayde
MarsATF
Shadow DemonBignum
RingmasterXakoda
PhoenixSpeeed
Hoodwinknot me
Game 2prediction missed37:32
GamerLegion 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritRCY
Faceless VoidShigetsu
LargoFayde
Sand KingRain
AlchemistGhost
Monkey KingATF
BatriderSpeeed
Ringmasternot me
TuskBignum
Shadow DemonXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 54%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2