BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakiro
albinozebra · 24 games
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
Tiny
Giant · 9 games
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 6 games
No Runes
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 2 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Berna · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 1 game
Elder Titan
Nuages · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
365 picks · 573 bans
Undying
335 picks · 572 bans
Tiny
330 picks · 224 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 334 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 461 bans
Enigma
236 picks · 749 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 101 bans
Death Prophet
209 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:29
5RATFORCESTAFF 59%No Runes 41%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by No Runes in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightdnm
Lifestealermini-`
BroodmotherSpeeed
TidehunterHyko
HoodwinkMoOz
Storm SpiritMr.Jeans
Silenceralbinozebra
MarciJupiter
61% · 51 game
Crystal MaidenNuages
Game 2prediction correct37:16
5RATFORCESTAFF 59%No Runes 41%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdnm
PuckMr.Jeans
BroodmotherSpeeed
Faceless Voidmini-`
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
MarsHyko
LionMoOz
MarciJupiter
51% · 113 games
SnapfireNuages
Game 3prediction correct28:18
5RATFORCESTAFF 62%No Runes 38%
The model gave 62% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdnm
Phantom Lancermini-`
VisageSpeeed
Primal BeastHyko
MarciMoOz
InvokerMr.Jeans
Vengeful Spiritalbinozebra
SnapfireNuages
56% · 71 game
MiranaJupiter
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 69%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3