?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Runesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 24 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 9 games
11%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 6 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
33%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 6 games
67%

No Runes

Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 2 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Berna · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Berna · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Nuages · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
365 picks · 573 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
335 picks · 572 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
330 picks · 224 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 334 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
239 picks · 461 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
236 picks · 749 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
210 picks · 101 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
209 picks · 312 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:29
5RATFORCESTAFF 59%No Runes 41%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by No Runes in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdnm
53% · 115 games46% · 41 game
Lifestealermini-`
Lifestealer
Broodmother
BroodmotherSpeeed
43% · 63 games53% · 77 games
TidehunterHyko
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMoOz
41% · 165 games54% · 122 games
Storm SpiritMr.Jeans
Storm Spirit
Silencer
Silenceralbinozebra
44% · 51 game57% · 103 games
MarciJupiter
Marci
61% · 51 game
Crystal MaidenNuages
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct37:16
5RATFORCESTAFF 59%No Runes 41%
The model gave 59% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdnm
51% · 124 games51% · 84 games
PuckMr.Jeans
Puck
Broodmother
BroodmotherSpeeed
44% · 98 games50% · 46 games
Faceless Voidmini-`
Faceless Void
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
50% · 133 games46% · 144 games
MarsHyko
Mars
Lion
LionMoOz
52% · 143 games56% · 111 games
MarciJupiter
Marci
51% · 113 games
SnapfireNuages
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct28:18
5RATFORCESTAFF 62%No Runes 38%
The model gave 62% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdnm
58% · 65 games42% · 35 games
Phantom Lancermini-`
Phantom Lancer
Visage
VisageSpeeed
53% · 100 games47% · 80 games
Primal BeastHyko
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciMoOz
54% · 174 games35% · 53 games
InvokerMr.Jeans
Invoker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritalbinozebra
51% · 39 games48% · 139 games
SnapfireNuages
Snapfire
56% · 71 game
MiranaJupiter
Mirana
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 69%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3