BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 38 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 24 games
Warlock
Fly · 24 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Hellscream · 18 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 16 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
679 picks · 842 bans
Tiny
572 picks · 577 bans
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1147 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 691 bans
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
PARIVISION 70%Virtus.pro 30%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverSatanic
MuertaTimado
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
PangolierAbed
AxeSSS
MarsSabeRLight-
Io9Class
Keeper of the LightHellscream
GrimstrokeDukalis
JakiroFly
Game 2prediction correct30:30
PARIVISION 66%Virtus.pro 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSatanic
MuertaTimado
TidehunterNo[o]ne
PuckAbed
AxeSSS
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Leshrac9Class
PhoenixFly
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
RubickHellscream
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 81%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2