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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 38 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 24 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 17 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 16 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
679 picks · 842 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 577 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 429 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1147 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 691 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 621 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1029 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
PARIVISION 70%Virtus.pro 30%
The model gave 70% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSatanic
51% · 112 games43% · 87 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Monkey King
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
54% · 216 games42% · 176 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Axe
AxeSSS
51% · 250 games41% · 115 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Io
Io9Class
58% · 25 games54% · 49 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDukalis
54% · 69 games57% · 245 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct30:30
PARIVISION 66%Virtus.pro 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
46% · 81 game45% · 151 game
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterNo[o]ne
53% · 164 games52% · 233 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Axe
AxeSSS
54% · 165 games52% · 108 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Leshrac
Leshrac9Class
50% · 151 game48% · 118 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
52% · 95 games47% · 46 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 81%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2