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BLAST Slam VII. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 31 game
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
70%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 29 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 28 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 28 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Rein · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
55%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 23 games
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
677 picks · 843 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 428 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
476 picks · 334 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1135 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 685 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
395 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 620 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Power Rangers
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total57% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:39
1w Team 54%Power Rangers 46%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 51:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistv1olent-
55% · 21 game49% · 55 games
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
51% · 134 games51% · 187 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Mars
Marsмистер мораль
41% · 211 games45% · 281 game
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
49% · 202 games56% · 13 games
IoImmersion
Io
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
60% · 25 games59% · 57 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct51:22
1w Team 52%Power Rangers 48%
The model gave 52% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
50% · 64 games43% · 364 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand Kingмистер мораль
59% · 140 games55% · 116 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
53% · 100 games49% · 188 games
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireRein
55% · 139 games45% · 51 game
VenomancerHduo
Venomancer
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
44% · 304 games52% · 28 games
Earth SpiritImmersion
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction correct43:40
1w Team 57%Power Rangers 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:02:12.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 57%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3