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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 22 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 17 games
76%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 15 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 23 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 17 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
740 picks · 560 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
526 picks · 1055 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
461 picks · 595 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
363 picks · 395 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
322 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
319 picks · 626 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:45
OG 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
53% · 178 games53% · 120 games
Chaos KnightJaCkky
Chaos Knight
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuragi
51% · 123 games46% · 111 games
BatriderYopaj
Batrider
Sand King
Sand KingATF
57% · 244 games45% · 393 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
53% · 185 games41% · 66 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonChuvash
51% · 128 games50% · 168 games
ClockwerkSkem
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed5:33
OG 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
51% · 163 games52% · 23 games
PudgeJaCkky
Pudge
Slardar
SlardarATF
53% · 27 games51% · 265 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Mars
Marsbzm
45% · 326 games45% · 296 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesChuvash
45% · 12 games61% · 41 game
ChenSkem
Chen
Io
IoTaiga
55% · 199 games43% · 102 games
Dark WillowTims
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2