ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Pucksignature
bzm · 22 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 17 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 15 games
BOOM Esports
Marssignature
Fbz · 25 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 23 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Tims · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
740 picks · 560 bans
Puck
526 picks · 1055 bans
Dawnbreaker
461 picks · 595 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
363 picks · 395 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 368 bans
Razor
319 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:45
OG 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
Chaos KnightJaCkky
Faceless VoidYuragi
BatriderYopaj
Sand KingATF
MarsFbz
EnchantressTaiga
Dark WillowTims
Shadow DemonChuvash
ClockwerkSkem
Game 2prediction missed5:33
OG 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYuragi
PudgeJaCkky
SlardarATF
KunkkaYopaj
Marsbzm
PangolierFbz
TechiesChuvash
ChenSkem
IoTaiga
Dark WillowTims
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2