BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 48 games
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 26 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 25 games
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 23 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 22 games
Storm Spirit
Mikoto · 20 games
GamerLegion
Dark Willow
Bignum · 27 games
Miranasignature
Speeed · 24 games
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 20 games
Hoodwink
Bignum · 19 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Storm Spirit
RCY · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 15 games
Kezsignature
RCY · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
505 picks · 299 bans
Dark Willow
406 picks · 169 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 169 bans
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 496 bans
Winter Wyvern
317 picks · 285 bans
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 311 bans
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 494 bans
Undying
278 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 75%GamerLegion 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 75%GamerLegion 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct27:13
Aurora Gaming 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawWs
Nature's ProphetYuma
Lone DruidSkiter
BeastmasterFayde
PuckMikoto
InvokerRCY
PhoenixKaori
Winter WyvernSpeeed
HoodwinkMira
Dark WillowBignum
Game 6prediction correct32:18
Aurora Gaming 62%GamerLegion 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSkiter
SvenYuma
Ember SpiritMikoto
Dark SeerFayde
SlardarWs
Earth SpiritRCY
PhoenixKaori
MiranaBignum
Dark WillowMira
DazzleSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 75%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4