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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 48 games
54%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 26 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 25 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
Mikoto · 20 games
50%

GamerLegion

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 27 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Speeed · 24 games
71%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 19 games
37%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
RCY · 16 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 15 games
40%
Kez
Kezsignature
RCY · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
505 picks · 299 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
406 picks · 169 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 169 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 496 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
317 picks · 285 bans
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 311 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 494 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
278 picks · 352 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 75%GamerLegion 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Aurora Gaming 75%GamerLegion 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct27:13
Aurora Gaming 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
51% · 201 game51% · 194 games
Nature's ProphetYuma
Nature's Prophet
Lone Druid
Lone DruidSkiter
56% · 97 games41% · 394 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckMikoto
56% · 244 games46% · 185 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
50% · 184 games52% · 232 games
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Winter Wyvern
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
51% · 612 games46% · 333 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 6prediction correct32:18
Aurora Gaming 62%GamerLegion 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
47% · 95 games50% · 90 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
55% · 247 games50% · 168 games
Dark SeerFayde
Dark Seer
Slardar
SlardarWs
47% · 138 games46% · 179 games
Earth SpiritRCY
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 94 games57% · 238 games
MiranaBignum
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
49% · 244 games49% · 143 games
DazzleSpeeed
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 75%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4