Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Queen of Painsignature
fn · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Disruptor
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Hoodwink
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Weaversignature
Bignum · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Petushara · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Banesignature
Bignum · 7 games
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 9 games
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
561 picks · 465 bans
Mars
436 picks · 676 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 529 bans
Bane
394 picks · 269 bans
Puck
367 picks · 836 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 564 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 637 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
BETBOOM TEAM 22%Virtus.pro 78%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:51.
Game 2prediction missed25:14
BETBOOM TEAM 22%Virtus.pro 78%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 33:02.
Game 3prediction correct24:29
BETBOOM TEAM 22%Virtus.pro 78%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3