Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 16 games
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
Bane
Hduo · 9 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
527 picks · 449 bans
Mars
458 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 542 bans
Bane
402 picks · 284 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 593 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 553 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 626 bans
Puck
335 picks · 788 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:30
Virtus.pro 62%cybercats 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
PuckEgor
DawnbreakergpK~
WeaverShigetsu
BeastmasterDM
Sand KingDkFogas
DazzleXakoda
JakiroHduo
Skywrath Mageyamich
HoodwinkFezor
Game 2prediction missed25:46
Virtus.pro 63%cybercats 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by cybercats in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
WeaverShigetsu
DawnbreakergpK~
RazorEgor
BeastmasterDM
Sand KingDkFogas
Rubickyamich
HoodwinkFezor
Ogre MagiXakoda
MarciHduo
Game 3prediction correct22:12
Virtus.pro 61%cybercats 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperRAMZES666
AlchemistEgor
NecrophosgpK~
BloodseekerShigetsu
EnigmaDM
BeastmasterDkFogas
Zeusyamich
WarlockHduo
ClockwerkXakoda
HoodwinkFezor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3