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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
38%

cybercats

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 16 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 13 games
31%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 12 games
83%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
58%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 10 games
20%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 9 games
22%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fezor · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 449 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 683 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 542 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
402 picks · 284 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 593 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 553 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 626 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 788 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:30
Virtus.pro 62%cybercats 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
48% · 172 games53% · 174 games
PuckEgor
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakergpK~
45% · 102 games55% · 135 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
63% · 201 game50% · 131 game
Sand KingDkFogas
Sand King
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
41% · 18 games52% · 66 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageyamich
46% · 154 games39% · 141 game
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed25:46
Virtus.pro 63%cybercats 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by cybercats in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
55% · 73 games47% · 259 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakergpK~
46% · 108 games46% · 144 games
RazorEgor
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
63% · 167 games42% · 123 games
Sand KingDkFogas
Sand King
Rubick
Rubickyamich
55% · 251 game43% · 133 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiXakoda
55% · 124 games49% · 64 games
MarciHduo
Marci
Game 3prediction correct22:12
Virtus.pro 61%cybercats 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperRAMZES666
37% · 19 games59% · 22 games
AlchemistEgor
Alchemist
Necrophos
NecrophosgpK~
59% · 31 game48% · 42 games
BloodseekerShigetsu
Bloodseeker
Enigma
EnigmaDM
46% · 57 games59% · 75 games
BeastmasterDkFogas
Beastmaster
Zeus
Zeusyamich
40% · 29 games52% · 22 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXakoda
47% · 109 games50% · 84 games
HoodwinkFezor
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3