Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Sorrywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 46 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 39 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 33 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
Tiny
Worick · 30 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 439 bans
Mars
460 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 538 bans
Bane
408 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 622 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total63% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:23
YNT 37%No Sorry 63%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 42:26.
Game 2prediction correct8:22
YNT 37%No Sorry 63%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 36:18.
Game 3prediction correct32:8
YNT 37%No Sorry 63%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 41:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 63%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3