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Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Sorrywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 46 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 39 games
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 33 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 30 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 29 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 439 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
460 picks · 683 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 538 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 288 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 594 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 567 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 622 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 648 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total63% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:23
YNT 37%No Sorry 63%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 42:26.
Game 2prediction correct8:22
YNT 37%No Sorry 63%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 36:18.
Game 3prediction correct32:8
YNT 37%No Sorry 63%
The model gave 63% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 41:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 63%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3