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Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gorillaloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mist Walkerwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gorilla

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Night · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Fonte · 1 game
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
小郭嘉 · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
小郭嘉 · 1 game
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Night · 1 game
0%

Mist Walker

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
486 picks · 454 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 677 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 503 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 655 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 594 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
355 picks · 307 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Gorilla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Gorilla
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:43
Gorilla 49%Mist Walker 51%
The model gave 51% on Mist Walker — the game was taken by Mist Walker in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaFonte
49% · 67 games59% · 190 games
Templar AssassinXy
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNight
38% · 46 games
Snapfire
SnapfireMolasses
47% · 62 games
Elder Titan
Elder Titan小郭嘉
32% · 15 games
Game 2prediction correct25:28
Gorilla 50%Mist Walker 50%
The model gave 50% on Mist Walker — the game was taken by Mist Walker in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNight
49% · 69 games56% · 258 games
InvokerXy
Invoker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFonte
49% · 63 games
Mars
MarsMolasses
45% · 105 games
Phoenix
Phoenix小郭嘉
32% · 21 game
Model check result
Model favoriteGorilla · 51%
Series resultMist Walker 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2