Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorilla
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Night · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Marcioften banned
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Night · 1 game
Mist Walker
Void Spiritoften banned
Xy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
486 picks · 454 bans
Mars
484 picks · 677 bans
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
355 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Gorilla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Gorilla
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:43
Gorilla 49%Mist Walker 51%
The model gave 51% on Mist Walker — the game was taken by Mist Walker in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaFonte
Templar AssassinXy
Void SpiritNight
SnapfireMolasses
Elder Titan小郭嘉
Game 2prediction correct25:28
Gorilla 50%Mist Walker 50%
The model gave 50% on Mist Walker — the game was taken by Mist Walker in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaNight
InvokerXy
Templar AssassinFonte
MarsMolasses
Phoenix小郭嘉
Model check result
Model favoriteGorilla · 51%
Series resultMist Walker 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2