Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Summit Gaming
Grimstroke
TrazaM · 1 game
Mirana
czy · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Unknown- · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Nj · 1 game
Made in Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 496 bans
Bane
438 picks · 267 bans
Sand King
426 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
368 picks · 427 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 613 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 807 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Summit Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:21
Summit Gaming 52%Made in Philippines 48%
The model gave 52% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawNj
Wraith KingKen
Faceless VoidUnknown-
MarsJG
InvokerMercury
BeastmasterRupido
Snapfireczy
Death ProphetTeehee
GrimstrokeTrazaM
Game 2prediction correct34:24
Summit Gaming 53%Made in Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawNj
MedusaKen
Sand KingMercury
LeshracJG
Faceless VoidUnknown-
MarsRupido
Rubickczy
Shadow ShamanTeehee
GrimstrokeTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteSummit Gaming · 55%
Series resultSummit Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2