Summit Gaming vs Made in Philippines — prediction DPC2S—Ю 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3

result vs prediction

Summit Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

55%45%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Made in Philippinesloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke

TrazaM · 1 game

100%

Mirana

czy · 1 game

100%

Phantom Assassinoften banned

Unknown- · 1 game

100%

Sand Kingoften banned

Mercury · 1 game

100%

Timbersawoften banned

Nj · 1 game

100%

Made in Philippines

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

466 picks · 644 bans

48%

Tiny

458 picks · 496 bans

50%

Bane

438 picks · 267 bans

56%

Sand King

426 picks · 564 bans

53%

Dragon Knight

368 picks · 427 bans

51%

Storm Spirit

363 picks · 613 bans

56%

Pangolier

353 picks · 542 bans

52%

Death Prophet

341 picks · 807 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%

Hero pool strength57% Summit Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% Summit Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:21

Summit Gaming 52%Made in Philippines 48%

The model gave 52% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 47:10.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

TimbersawNj

53% · 146 games59% · 203 games

Wraith KingKen