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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 36 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 36 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 23 games
70%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
59%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
589 picks · 860 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 534 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
445 picks · 405 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 299 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 665 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 578 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 546 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:18
Team Yandex 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
52% · 164 games47% · 275 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Kez
KezWatson
49% · 160 games53% · 157 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderDM
54% · 399 games45% · 267 games
MarsAce
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
53% · 294 games49% · 343 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
51% · 428 games47% · 403 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed34:12
Team Yandex 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
46% · 71 game49% · 454 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
51% · 657 games49% · 680 games
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
51% · 527 games51% · 358 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
50% · 810 games51% · 649 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Tusk
TuskSaksa
49% · 613 games53% · 537 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2