PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 36 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 36 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 28 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 23 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
589 picks · 860 bans
Tiny
507 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
445 picks · 405 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 1029 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 665 bans
Mars
380 picks · 578 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:18
Team Yandex 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Storm SpiritNisha
KezWatson
MuertamiCKe
BatriderDM
MarsAce
PhoenixMalady
WarlocktOfu
Shadow ShamanSaksa
TuskBoxi
Game 2prediction missed34:12
Team Yandex 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaWatson
Void SpiritNisha
PuckChira JUNIOR
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Centaur WarrunnerDM
TidehunterAce
JakiroMalady
WarlocktOfu
TuskSaksa
Shadow DemonBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2