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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 23 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 22 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 15 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 22 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 21 game
67%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
629 picks · 994 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 437 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 633 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1060 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 492 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 281 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 580 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 505 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:24
Xtreme Gaming 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAme
48% · 131 game54% · 64 games
Faceless VoidPure~
Faceless Void
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
55% · 192 games52% · 449 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
43% · 592 games55% · 112 games
Largo33
Largo
Ringmaster
Ringmasterfy
47% · 463 games56% · 331 game
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
43% · 204 games48% · 626 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct16:42
Xtreme Gaming 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAme
51% · 87 games48% · 124 games
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Batrider
BatriderXxs
53% · 262 games58% · 68 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
49% · 140 games49% · 87 games
Doom33
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
51% · 145 games47% · 197 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinfy
53% · 45 games45% · 203 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2