DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
Tusk
fy · 15 games
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 36 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 21 game
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
629 picks · 994 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 437 bans
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 633 bans
Shadow Demon
450 picks · 1060 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 492 bans
Warlock
442 picks · 281 bans
Mars
423 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:24
Xtreme Gaming 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorAme
Faceless VoidPure~
UnderlordXxs
Ember Spiritbzm
TinyNothingToSay
Largo33
Ringmasterfy
Shadow ShamanAri
PhoenixxNova
JakiroWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct16:42
Xtreme Gaming 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorAme
MuertaPure~
BatriderXxs
Earthshakerbzm
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Doom33
PhoenixxNova
HoodwinkAri
Nyx Assassinfy
DisruptorWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2