Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 26 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 26 games
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 24 games
Rubick
Heaven · 22 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 19 games
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
549 picks · 385 bans
Queen of Pain
462 picks · 560 bans
Mars
447 picks · 633 bans
Weaver
430 picks · 820 bans
Snapfire
360 picks · 180 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 566 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 535 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:22
Nemiga Gaming 67%YNT 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKiritych
LunaDarkLord^
Queen of PainAinkrad
PuckMalr1ne
AxeTheChosenOne
MarsDominic
IoHeaven
Grimstrokejesv
BaneVANSKOR
Treant ProtectordSa
Game 2prediction correct20:5
Nemiga Gaming 67%YNT 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 21:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKiritych
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
Storm SpiritAinkrad
PuckMalr1ne
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
MarsDominic
IoHeaven
GrimstrokedSa
BaneVANSKOR
Shadow Demonjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 79%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2