Nemiga Gaming vs YNT — prediction WDCLS 2 8 · Dota 2

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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3

result vs prediction

Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

79%21%

probability at match start · final 2:0

YNTloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Marsoften banned

TheChosenOne · 27 games

44%

Dark Willow

Heaven · 26 games

50%

Kunkkaoften banned

Kiritych · 26 games

54%

Shadow Demon

Heaven · 24 games

54%

Rubick

Heaven · 22 games

50%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Heaven · 20 games

50%

Beastmasteroften banned

Ainkrad · 19 games

47%

Nyx Assassinsignature

VANSKOR · 19 games

74%

YNT

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

549 picks · 385 bans

57%

Queen of Pain

462 picks · 560 bans

52%

Mars

447 picks · 633 bans

53%

Weaver

430 picks · 820 bans

54%

Snapfire

360 picks · 180 bans

44%

Spirit Breaker

342 picks · 566 bans

52%

Kunkka

341 picks · 535 bans

54%

Wraith King

278 picks · 330 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total79% Nemiga Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:22

Nemiga Gaming 67%YNT 33%

The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:44.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo