CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 43 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 34 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
Tusk
Ekki · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
VP.Prodigy
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 23 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
Sand King
Katsura · 16 games
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
621 picks · 963 bans
Tusk
509 picks · 433 bans
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 994 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 471 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 510 bans
Warlock
420 picks · 261 bans
Mars
396 picks · 551 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:25
Pipsqueak+4 57%VP.Prodigy 43%
The model gave 57% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Bristlebacktakizawa
BeastmasterCopy
InvokerKatsura
MarsPalantimos
Dragon Knightcutie
BatriderEkki
Ringmasterraregods
Omniknightaik
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Pipsqueak+4 59%VP.Prodigy 41%
The model gave 59% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Kezcutie
LeshracCopy
Sand KingKatsura
BatriderEkki
Timbersawtakizawa
MarsPalantimos
JakiroJANTER
Omniknightaik
Shadow Shamanraregods
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 65%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2