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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 43 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 42 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 34 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 31 game
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 23 games
78%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 16 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 12 games
83%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 963 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 433 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 994 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 471 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 261 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 551 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:25
Pipsqueak+4 57%VP.Prodigy 43%
The model gave 57% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
46% · 396 games55% · 308 games
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCopy
47% · 345 games54% · 104 games
InvokerKatsura
Invoker
Mars
MarsPalantimos
45% · 349 games46% · 426 games
Dragon Knightcutie
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderEkki
53% · 314 games51% · 339 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Omniknight
Omniknightaik
51% · 52 games52% · 279 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Pipsqueak+4 59%VP.Prodigy 41%
The model gave 59% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
53% · 390 games46% · 95 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
53% · 221 game53% · 186 games
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderEkki
52% · 272 games51% · 291 game
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsPalantimos
47% · 347 games47% · 450 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Omniknight
Omniknightaik
50% · 48 games49% · 256 games
Shadow Shamanraregods
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 65%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2