?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Magnificatloss 0:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Magnificat

Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
pio65 · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Actor · 1 game
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
jAMES · 1 game
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
sQreen · 1 game
100%

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 6 games
83%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
268 picks · 399 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
267 picks · 399 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 636 bans
61%
Bane
Bane
241 picks · 177 bans
60%
Lina
Lina
219 picks · 480 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
216 picks · 411 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
210 picks · 266 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
Magnificat 34%Hydra 66%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 23:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursapio65
47% · 114 games54% · 72 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterActor
42% · 71 game49% · 33 games
Drow RangerKami
Drow Ranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkjAMES
47% · 134 games61% · 45 games
BeastmasterBlizzy
Beastmaster
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorsQreen
41% · 61 game53% · 159 games
LionMuka
Lion
59% · 71 game
Monkey KingZayac
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1