Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionMMagnificatloss 0:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Magnificat
Anti-Mageoften banned
pio65 · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Actor · 1 game
Snapfire
jAMES · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
sQreen · 1 game
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 7 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 6 games
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
268 picks · 399 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 399 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 636 bans
Bane
241 picks · 177 bans
Lina
219 picks · 480 bans
Weaver
216 picks · 411 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
Magnificat 34%Hydra 66%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 23:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursapio65
Ember SpiritAskold
BrewmasterActor
Drow RangerKami
HoodwinkjAMES
BeastmasterBlizzy
Witch DoctorsQreen
LionMuka
59% · 71 game
Monkey KingZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1