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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Khanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
W1sh- · 8 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
43%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
71%

Khan

Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 6 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 6 games
83%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
goddam · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 318 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 378 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
235 picks · 131 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
232 picks · 512 bans
62%
Lina
Lina
228 picks · 482 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 292 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
212 picks · 247 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
211 picks · 284 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:34
Brame 56%Khan 44%
The model gave 56% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 45:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNefrit
47% · 165 games42% · 89 games
Troll Warlordlayme
Troll Warlord
Razor
RazorW1sh-
59% · 121 game49% · 102 games
BatriderPikachu
Batrider
Lina
LinaCTOMAHEH1
56% · 182 games44% · 240 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsSkyLark
50% · 307 games47% · 317 games
Liongoddam
Lion
Undying
UndyingSsaSpartan
53% · 64 games54% · 91 game
DisruptorAccell
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Brame 54%Khan 46%
The model gave 54% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNefrit
52% · 140 games53% · 270 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
44% · 237 games44% · 197 games
Storm SpiritPikachu
Storm Spirit
Io
IoSkyLark
49% · 76 games49% · 149 games
Troll Warlordlayme
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingSsaSpartan
48% · 156 games53% · 207 games
Linagoddam
Lina
Mars
MarsCTOMAHEH1
51% · 266 games60% · 52 games
SilencerAccell
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 59%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2